The great disconnect. Hopes and fears after the excess of globalization

La globalizzazione è davvero arrivata al capolinea o sta solo cambiando pelle? Quel che è certo è che l’iperglobalizzazione si è scontrata con forti trend di deglobalizzazione, spinti da motivazioni economiche e sociali ma anche politiche e geopolitiche. Aumentano protezionismo nel commercio e regolamentazioni sui mercati finanziari. Una nuova preminenza della politica sull’economia spinge molti paesi a privilegiare la sicurezza nazionale all’efficienza economica. “Pezzi di mondo” che non si parlano e tra i quali l’interscambio commerciale, finanziario, tecnologico, e culturale è in progressiva diminuzione. Comprenderle e gestire i cambiamenti è fondamentale per potersi orientare nel mondo che verrà. . Despite its excesses and contradictions, globalization has lifted billions of people out of poverty, enabled scientific progress, and reduced conflict. Nevertheless, globalization is going through a deep crisis. Marco Magnani identifies four forces that are fueling the «great disconnect: economic and technological trends are reshaping global value chains; do-mestic political dynamics are fostering closures in an attempt to protect national interests; external shocks (pandemics, wars, financial crises) are exposing the vulnerability of the global system; geopolitical objectives are encouraging to restrict relations to countries perceived as friends. In such a scenario, politics prevails over economics, regionalization increases, and the instability of international alliances soars, partly due to the proliferation of «free agent countries seeking strategic autonomy. Fragmentation has high economic costs and it increases the risk of conflict. But it may also trigger a new globalization trend. The Arctic, the Under-water, Space and the Digital Revolution can be fronts of competition and dispute, or they can represent the new frontiers of cooperation. The world to come will largely depend on the ability of liberal democracies to defend and promote their values, abroad and at home. The hope is that the revival in the circulation of goods, services, capital, people and knowledge will consolidate rights and spread freedoms.

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